|
This report covers the supply/demand situation for naphtha and gas oil in
the United States, Western Europe, the Middle East, Japan and China, with a
special emphasis on the availability of these hydrocarbons for the production
of chemicals. Naphtha and gas oil are used predominantly in the fuels market
and their use in chemicals is highly influenced by market factors affecting
the fuels market.
Naphtha and gas oil have two basic uses—as a feedstock for production
of petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, or as the primary
component in the production of gasoline and aromatics. Gasoline is the dominant
end use for naphtha in the United States and Western Europe. In Asia and the
Middle East, naphtha is used mainly as a cracker feedstock for olefin production.
Worldwide, gas oil is used predominantly as fuel.
To meet the increasing demand for naphtha worldwide, refiners have developed
processes to convert heavier hydrocarbons to hydrocarbons in the naphtha boiling
range. These processes include catalytic cracking of heavy gas oil, hydrocracking
of heavy gas oil and coking of residuum. World demand for naphtha for petrochemical
use is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2% during 2006–2011.
Higher demand for naphtha for petrochemical use will be most evident in Asia.
In contrast, olefins growth in the Middle East is expected, but will be based
mainly on natural gas liquids (NGLs).
World demand for gas oil is expected to increase by 2.2% per year from 2006
to 2011. The majority of gas oil is consumed in the fuels market and its demand
will depend on relative feed economics. Gas oil consumption for chemicals accounts
for only about 1-3% of total world consumption because of lower olefins yields.
The chemical uses of naphtha include feedstock for steam cracking to produce
petrochemicals (ethylene, propylene and pyrolysis gasoline) and input to catalytic
reforming to produce reformate for gasoline blending stock and BTX (benzene,
toluene and xylenes) extraction. Regionally, the ethylene industries of Western
Europe and Asia are based on naphtha as the primary feedstock, whereas the
U.S. olefins industry is based primarily on steam cracking of NGLs. In the
Middle East, ethylene is produced from various sources including ethane and
mixed feedstocks. Regional availability of economically attractive feedstock
supplies has been the key determinant in cracker design for feedstock.
Over the years, ethylene producers in Western Europe and Japan have begun
to build flexibility into their plants to accommodate a wider range of feedstocks.
This strategy has allowed them to take advantage of the price fluctuations
among the various feedstocks. For example, naphtha and gas oil were the feedstock
for 90% of the ethylene produced in Western Europe in the early 1980s. Discovery
of natural gas reserves in the North Sea, the subsequent production from these
reserves, and the perceived decline of petroleum reserves stimulated Western
Europe to increase NGL cracking capacity. This was particularly true in the
United Kingdom
During 2006–2011, consumption of naphtha and gas oil for the fuel market
will be minimal in the United States, Japan and the Middle East. Western Europe’s
naphtha consumption for fuels will continue to decline but will be offset by
demand for gas oil for diesel fuels. China will see strong growth in fuels
through 2011 as the second-largest energy-consuming country in the world.
Chemical demand for naphtha and gas oil will also increase. As ethylene production
grows, so will the consumption of naphtha and gas oil. However, the rate of
growth will vary depending on the availability and prices of other feedstocks
in relation to naphtha and gas oil. In the United States, naphtha consumption
for olefins from 2006 to 2011 is projected to increase at about 1–2%
per year while the overall rate for ethylene production is forecast to be about
the same through 2011. In Western Europe and Japan, naphtha consumption for
olefins is expected to decline while demand for BTX will be slight. In the
Middle East and China, naphtha consumption for ethylene production will increase
by 18% and 10% per year, respectively, through 2011. China will show a 12%
average annual increase in naphtha demand for BTX over the same period.
|
