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Development and growth of the global PET solid-state resin market since 1996 has been impressive. Thirty-two years after their introduction in the mid-1970s, global consumption of these resins continues to grow at high single-digit rates. Three regions (North America, Europe and Asia) accounted for the majority of world production and consumption.
Asia and the Middle East are expected to achieve double-digit consumption growth through 2012. Eastern Europe and South America have created import opportunities. Asian and Middle Eastern producers are expected to be the major suppliers of PET exports to Eastern Europe, Central and South America, and Oceania. Continued overcapacity and relatively lower feedstock costs compared with North America and Western Europe will be the primary drivers of Asian exports.
The last remaining untapped major market for PET is beer packaging, but substantial conversion has yet to materialize. Use of PET beer bottles is gaining strength primarily in developing countries, such as Russia and China. In China, poor glass quality and the low capital barrier for PET have led to an increase in the number of beer bottles produced over the years. Globally, beer accounts for approximately 5% of the PET beverage market and of that, Russia alone consumes approximately 60%. In the United States, use of PET in beer packaging is insignificant and confined to niche markets. But in Western Europe, strong PET growth is expected from beer conversion. Bottle resins for beer have been embraced in Germany and the switch from glass could support moderate double-digit PET consumption growth rates.
The following pie chart shows world consumption of PET solid-state resins:
PET bottle resin is a very important material driving growth in the developed economies, but growth of PET fiber remains dominant in terms of total polyester. PET growth is driven differently depending on the geographic region. In North America and Western Europe, PET growth is associated primarily with PET bottle resins; demand for PET fiber has been in decline since the late 1990s. PET growth in most other regions is primarily associated with PET fiber. Global polyester growth will continue to be driven by Asia and, more specifically, by the Chinese market.
Because of persistent low margins, the global PET industry saw considerable consolidation in the last two years. Future success for improved margins will come from new and more economical technologies, perhaps more consolidation, rationalization of uneconomical capacity, vertical integration, and larger economies of scale.
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