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The world phosphate rock industry, following a relatively buoyant period that
ended in the late 1980s, experienced a sharp decline that bottomed out in 1993.
The decline was primarily the result of the social-economic-political problems
experienced in the Eastern bloc countries. The world’s operating rate
dropped from 83% in 1990 to a low of 68% in 1993. A rapid recovery from the
1993 low occurred during 1994–1995; however, the industry has exhibited
only a marginal upward trend since. World production and consumption experienced
another cyclical low in 2001. Since then, the long-awaited upturn may finally
be under way and a moderate average annual growth rate of 1.8% is projected
for the forecast period to 2010. By 2010, it is projected that world production
and consumption will have returned to about the historical high recorded in
1988/89. In addition, the average industry operating rate in 2005 was substantially
improved and is forecast to continue to increase. The phosphate rock market
is stronger than it has been for a number of years and is expected to continue
to strengthen.
The primary market for phosphate rock is the production of phosphate fertilizer
products such as ammonium phosphates and superphosphates. It is estimated that
fertilizer production accounts for more than 90% of world phosphate rock consumption.
The balance is consumed as animal feed and in a variety of industrial/technical
applications. Apparent world consumption, which by definition is equal to world
production, peaked at about 51.3 million metric tons of P2O5 in 1988 and dropped
to only 35.7 million metric tons in 1993—a 30% decline. Although some
recovery occurred between 1993 and 1998, a cyclical downturn occurred once
again in 2001, led by significant drops in consumption in the United States,
Socialist Asia and Western Europe. The United States is the largest phosphate
rock consuming region and, based on P2O5 content, accounted for 24% of apparent
world consumption in 2005. Socialist Asia, Africa, and the former USSR were
also large consumers. The largest increases since 1993 occurred in Socialist
Asia and Africa, while significant declines occurred in Western Europe and
Japan. World apparent consumption has increased by 32% since 1993 and is projected
to increase by an additional 9% during the forecast period, led by another
large increase in Socialist Asia. Declines of major significance are not expected
in any region.
The four largest corporate producers worldwide are OCP Group (Morocco), the
Mosaic Company (United States), Cie. Des Phos. De Gafsa (Tunisia), and PCS
Phosphate (United States), accounting for about 15%, 11%, 5%, and 5%, respectively,
of world capacity in 2005. In addition, two large complexes in the former USSR—Khibiny
Complex (Russia) and Kara Tau Complex (Kazakhstan)—accounted for 9% and
5%, respectively. However, the calculated operating rate for both countries
is very low and their actual operating capacity may be well below the original
design capability. The worldwide phosphate rock industry had an estimated fob
value in 2005 of about $2.0 billon.
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