SCUP Report

Table of Contents

Abstract

This report focuses on petroleum and chemical process catalysts. See the SCUP Catalysts: Emission Control Catalysts report for information on that area.

Process catalysts, a multibillion-dollar-per-year business worldwide, play a vital role in the economy. The value of products dependent on process catalysts, including petroleum products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, synthetic rubber and plastics, and many others, is said to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year. About 90% of chemical manufacturing processes and more than 20% of all industrial products employ underlying catalytic steps. Petroleum refining, for example, which is the source of by far the largest share of industrial products, consists almost entirely of catalytic processes.

For a number of catalysts, the strongest growth in demand through 2011 will occur in regions other than NorthAmerica,WesternEurope and Japan. Assuming no new economic crises prior to 2011, industrialized and developing countries in the Asia Pacific region and Latin America will become important markets for process catalysts. Rising incomes will drive demand for motor vehicles and transportation fuels in Asia and Latin America. Industrial chemical production, particularly of petrochemicals, is growing faster in Asia and the Middle East than in North America and Europe. This growth will be reflected in increased demand for a number of catalysts in the refinery segment (such as for hydroprocessing), for polymerization, and for hydrogen production. Low-sulfur mandates are also becoming more widespread in these regions.

Legislation is driving growth in catalyst consumption in the developed countries in North America, Europe and Japan, while economic growth is the major driving force for developing countries of Asia. These regions are covered in detail in this report. More-stringent vehicle emissions standards are resulting in the development of advanced automotive catalysts that require low-sulfur fuel, thus driving demand for hydroprocessing catalysts (and refinery hydrogen). Increased use of hydroprocessing catalysts is also forecast for Western Europe. Overall catalyst demand growth in Japan will be more modest because of the continued shift of the manufacturing base overseas to other Asian countries. Catalyst consumption in both petroleum refining and chemical processing will grow fast reflecting high GDP growth in China.

As the global refining industry moves to cleaner fuels, refiners are being squeezed on hydrogen availability and octane requirements. Gasoline desulfurization technology has advanced to limit hydrogen consumption and octane loss, but globally, the octane-barrel position of refiners will deteriorate. On the diesel side of the clean fuels challenge, a significant increase in hydrogen consumption is forecast to attain ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) from straight-run and cracked stocks containing refractory sulfur species. Increasingly, isomerization of light naphtha will be one of the preferred solutions to add octane to the gasoline pool, triggered by new catalyst formulations and optimized processes. Catalytic reforming is the technology of choice for the production of high-octane gasoline and is usually the main source of refinery hydrogen. Catalytic reforming and isomerization continue to grow because of their role in removing lead from gasoline in the developing world. Hydroprocessing is probably growing the most, in response to lower sulfur levels in gasoline and diesel.

Major market segments for polymerization catalysts include polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride and polystyrene. Polyolefin catalysts are the largest single market sector. Polyolefin catalyst consumption is nearly flat. Growth in polyolefin production is compensated mostly by the development and use of higher-efficiency catalysts.

Technical improvements have reduced the cost of metallocene-produced polymers to levels more competitive with those produced with conventional Ziegler-Natta polymerization catalysts. Polymers based on single-site catalysts have unique properties and are expected to create substantial new markets; however, they will not displace conventional commodity polymers in existing markets. The initial slow growth of SSCs can also be attributed to intellectual property barriers.

Advanced Ziegler-Natta catalysts have been developed that reportedly can produce polyolefins with properties similar to those produced by metallocenes, thereby resisting replacement. It is expected that Ziegler-Natta catalysts will remain the dominating technology because of its cost benefits.