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This report focuses on petroleum and chemical process catalysts. See the SCUP Catalysts:
Emission Control Catalysts report for information on that area.
Process catalysts, a multibillion-dollar-per-year business worldwide, play
a vital role in the economy. The value of products dependent on process catalysts,
including petroleum products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, synthetic rubber
and plastics, and many others, is said to be in the hundreds of billions of
dollars per year. About 90% of chemical manufacturing processes and more than
20% of all industrial products employ underlying catalytic steps. Petroleum
refining, for example, which is the source of by far the largest share of industrial
products, consists almost entirely of catalytic processes.
For a number of catalysts, the strongest growth in demand through 2011 will
occur in regions other than NorthAmerica,WesternEurope and Japan. Assuming
no new economic crises prior to 2011, industrialized and developing countries
in the Asia Pacific region and Latin America will become important markets
for process catalysts. Rising incomes will drive demand for motor vehicles
and transportation fuels in Asia and Latin America. Industrial chemical production,
particularly of petrochemicals, is growing faster in Asia and the Middle East
than in North America and Europe. This growth will be reflected in increased
demand for a number of catalysts in the refinery segment (such as for hydroprocessing),
for polymerization, and for hydrogen production. Low-sulfur mandates are also
becoming more widespread in these regions.
Legislation is driving growth in catalyst consumption in the developed countries
in North America, Europe and Japan, while economic growth is the major driving
force for developing countries of Asia. These regions are covered in detail
in this report. More-stringent vehicle emissions standards are resulting in
the development of advanced automotive catalysts that require low-sulfur fuel,
thus driving demand for hydroprocessing catalysts (and refinery hydrogen).
Increased use of hydroprocessing catalysts is also forecast for Western Europe.
Overall catalyst demand growth in Japan will be more modest because of the
continued shift of the manufacturing base overseas to other Asian countries.
Catalyst consumption in both petroleum refining and chemical processing will
grow fast reflecting high GDP growth in China.
As the global refining industry moves to cleaner fuels, refiners are being
squeezed on hydrogen availability and octane requirements. Gasoline desulfurization
technology has advanced to limit hydrogen consumption and octane loss, but
globally, the octane-barrel position of refiners will deteriorate. On the diesel
side of the clean fuels challenge, a significant increase in hydrogen consumption
is forecast to attain ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) from straight-run and
cracked stocks containing refractory sulfur species. Increasingly, isomerization
of light naphtha will be one of the preferred solutions to add octane to the
gasoline pool, triggered by new catalyst formulations and optimized processes.
Catalytic reforming is the technology of choice for the production of high-octane
gasoline and is usually the main source of refinery hydrogen. Catalytic reforming
and isomerization continue to grow because of their role in removing lead from
gasoline in the developing world. Hydroprocessing is probably growing the most,
in response to lower sulfur levels in gasoline and diesel.
Major market segments for polymerization catalysts include polyethylene, polypropylene,
polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride and polystyrene. Polyolefin
catalysts are the largest single market sector. Polyolefin catalyst consumption
is nearly flat. Growth in polyolefin production is compensated mostly by the
development and use of higher-efficiency catalysts.
Technical improvements have reduced the cost of metallocene-produced polymers
to levels more competitive with those produced with conventional Ziegler-Natta
polymerization catalysts. Polymers based on single-site catalysts have unique
properties and are expected to create substantial new markets; however, they
will not displace conventional commodity polymers in existing markets. The
initial slow growth of SSCs can also be attributed to intellectual property
barriers.
Advanced Ziegler-Natta catalysts have been developed that reportedly can produce
polyolefins with properties similar to those produced by metallocenes, thereby
resisting replacement. It is expected that Ziegler-Natta catalysts will remain
the dominating technology because of its cost benefits.
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